Geodetic Forecast of Long Term Earthquake Potential in Southern California


    Using strain rates derived from SCEC Crustal Motion Map 3.0 we have devised a model to forecast long-term earthquake potential in Southern California. A paper documenting the model has been submitted to Seismological Research Letters. The numerical version of the forecast can be found on the website of the SCEC Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM), or in the files linked below.

    PDF version of the paper

    Forecast of "independent" earthquakes of M > 5.0 in southern California

    Forecast of all the earthquakes of M > 5.0 in southern California