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PUBLICATION LISTS:

Publications 1964/1973, PS file

Publications and manuscripts 1973/present, PS file (LIST.PS)

Publications and manuscripts 1973/present, TeX file (LIST.TEX)

Publications 1974/present, plain text file

Manuscripts and other files available through FTP anonymous

Some old manuscripts available through FTP anonymous

Texts of old (mostly 1980-1994) manuscripts (## 7-37)

Access to publication lists and to texts of old (mostly 1980-1994) manuscripts

Files available at MOHO

Some of papers have corrections which are listed in ERRATA and CORRECTIONS

If you notice any additional errors or misprints in my papers, please let me know.

Query Results from Smithsonian/NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS) for Y. KAGAN (abstracts, papers, some authored by Yurii M. Kagan, Russian physicist) .

Publications with abstracts, original text, figures, and sometimes PDF files, the numbers at the item front are from LIST.TEX/LIST.PS file (see above):

-1. Kagan, Ya. Ya., A probabilistic description of the seismic regime, Izvestiya Academy of Sciences USSR, Physics of the Solid Earth, no.4, April 1973, pp.213-19, English translation.

0. Kagan, Y. Y., 1973. Statistical methods in the study of the seismic process (translated from Russian by D. Vere-Jones; with discussion: Comments by M. S. Bartlett, A. G. Hawkes, and J. W. Tukey), Bull. Int. Statist. Inst., 45(3), 437-453, (scanned text); PDF file 14Mb

1. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, Do epicentres migrate on the San Andreas fault?, Nature, 257, p. 160, 1975

2. Kagan, Y., and L. Knopoff, 1976. Statistical search for non-random features of the seismicity of strong earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 12(4), 291-318.

3. Kagan, Y., and L. Knopoff, 1977. Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 14(2), 97-108.

4. Knopoff, L., and Kagan, Y., 1977. Analysis of the theory of extremes as applied to earthquake problems, J. Geophys. Res., 82, 5647-5657.

5. Kagan, Y., and Knopoff, L., 1978. Statistical study of the occurrence of shallow earthquakes, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 55, 67-86.

6. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1980. Spatial distribution of earthquakes: The two-point correlation function, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 62, 303-320.

7. Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, L., 1980. Dependence of seismicity on depth, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 70, 1811-1822.

8. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1981. Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 2853-2862.

9. Kagan, Y. Y., 1981. Spatial distribution of earthquakes: The three-point moment function, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 67, 697-717.

10. Kagan, Y. Y., 1981. Spatial distribution of earthquakes: The four-point moment function, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 67, 719-733.

11. Knopoff, L., Kagan, Y. Y., and Knopoff, R., 1982. b-values for fore- and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 72, 1663-1676.

12. Kagan, Y. Y., 1982. Stochastic model of earthquake fault geometry, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 71, 659-691.

13. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1984. A stochastic model of earthquake occurrence, Proc. 8-th Int. Conf. Earthq. Eng., San Francisco, Calif., vol. 1, 295-302.

14. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1985. The first-order statistical moment of the seismic moment tensor, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 81, 429-444.

15. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1985. The two-point correlation function of the seismic moment tensor, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 83, 637-656.

16. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1987. Random stress and earthquake statistics: Time dependence, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 88, 723-731.

17. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, "Statistical short-term earthquake prediction", Science, 236, 1563-1567, 1987.

18. Kagan, Y. Y., 1987. Point sources of elastic deformation: Elementary sources, static displacements, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 90, 1-34.

19. Kagan, Y. Y., 1987. Point sources of elastic deformation: Elementary sources, dynamic displacements, Geophys. J. Roy. astr. Soc., 91, 891-912. (Errata, Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc., 93, 591, 1988.)

20. Kagan, Y. Y., 1988. Multipole expansions of extended sources of elastic deformation, Geophys. J., 93, 101-114.

21. Kagan, Y. Y., 1988. Static sources of elastic deformation in homogeneous half-space, J. Geophys. Res., 93(B9), 10,560-10,574.

22. Davis, P. M., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan, 1989. The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 79, 1439-1456; 1.2 Mb PDF file.

23. Kagan, Y. Y., 1989. Earthquakes and fractals, in: Fractal phenomena in disordered systems, by R. Orbach et al, Annu. Rev. Mater. Sci., 19, 520-522.

24. Kagan, Y. Y., 1990. Random stress and earthquake statistics: Spatial dependence, Geophys. J. Int., 102, 573-583.

25. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1991. Long-term earthquake clustering, Geophys. J. Int., 104, 117-133.

26. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Fractal dimension of brittle fracture, J. Nonlinear Sci., 1, 1-16.

27. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Seismic moment distribution, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 123-134.

28. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 135-148.

29. Kagan, Y. Y., 1991. 3-D rotation of double-couple earthquake sources, Geophys. J. Int., 106, 709-716 ;

30. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1991. Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten years after, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21,419-21,431.

31. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. Seismicity: Turbulence of solids, Nonlinear Sci. Today, 2, 1-13.

32. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. On the geometry of an earthquake fault system, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 71(1-2), 15-35.

33. Molchan, G. M., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1992. Earthquake prediction and its optimization, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4823-4838.

34. Kagan, Y. Y., 1992. Correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms, Geophys. J. Int., 110, 305-320.

35. Kagan, Y. Y., 1993. Statistics of characteristic earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 83, 7-24.

36. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1993. Reply [to Nishenko & Sykes], J. Geophys. Res., 98, 9917-9920.

37. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Incremental stress and earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 117, 345-364.

38. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1994. Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 13,685-13,700.

39. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 172-181.

40. Kagan, Y. Y., 1994. Observational evidence for earthquakes as a nonlinear dynamic process, Physica D, 77, 160-192.

41. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1995. New seismic gap hypothesis: Five years after, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 3943-3959.

42. Kagan, Y. Y., 1995. Magnitude-frequency distribution in the European-Mediterranean earthquake regions -- comment, Tectonophysics, 245, 101-105.

43. Kagan, Y. Y., 1996. Comment on ``The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?" by S. G. Wesnousky, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 86, 274-285.

44. Kagan, Y. Y., 1996. VAN earthquake predictions -- an attempt at statistical evaluation, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1315-1318.

45. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, 1996. Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections, Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1433-1436.

46. Sornette, D., L. Knopoff, Y. Y. Kagan, and C. Vanneste, 1996. Rank-ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the distribution of large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 13,883-13,893.

47. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. Vere-Jones, 1996. Problems in the modelling and statistical analysis of earthquakes, in: Lecture Notes in Statistics, 114, pp. 398-425.

48. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Comment (Review 25.1) on ``Application of the concentration parameter of seismoactive faults to Southern California" by A. Zavyalov and R. E. Habermann, Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 149, 137-144.

49. Kagan, Y. Y., 1997. Seismic moment-frequency relation for shallow earthquakes: Regional comparison, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 2835-2852.

50. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, 1997. Earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science, 275, 1616-1617.

51. Kagan Y. Y. "Statistical aspects of Parkfield earthquake sequence and Parkfield prediction experiment", Tectonophysics, 270, 207-219, 1997.

52. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, 1997. Response -- Cannot earthquakes be predicted?, Science, 278, 488-490.

53. Kagan Y. Y. "Earthquake size distribution and earthquake insurance", Communications in Statistics: Stochastic Models, 13(4), 775-797, 1997.

54. Kagan Y. Y. "Are Earthquakes Predictable?", Geophys. J. Int., 131, 505-525, 1997.

55. Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, F. Mulargia, and S. C. Stiros, 1998. Letter [on VAN], Physics Today, 51(6), 95-96.

56. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, "Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress", J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24,453-24,467, 1998.

57. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1998. VAN method lacks validity, Eos Trans. AGU, 79(47), pp.~573, 579.

58. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, "Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999", Seism. Res. Lett., 70, 393-403, 1999.

59. Kagan Y. Y. "Is earthquake seismology a hard, quantitative science?", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 155, 233-258, 1999.

60. Kagan Y. Y. "Universality of the seismic moment-frequency relation", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 155, 537-573, 1999.

61. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, "Worldwide doublets of large shallow earthquakes", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 89, 1147-1155, 1999.

62. Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson, "Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes", Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453, 2000.

63. Kagan Y. Y. "Temporal Correlations of Earthquake Focal Mechanisms", Geophys. J. Int., 143, 881-897, 2000.

64. Kagan, Y. Y., and F. Schoenberg "Estimation of the Upper Cutoff Parameter for the Tapered Pareto Distribution", (David Vere-Jones' Festschrift, edited by D. J. Daley), J. Appl. Probab., 38A, 158-175, 2001.

65. Kagan Y. Y. "Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results", Geophys. J. Int., 148, 520-541, 2002.

66. Kagan Y. Y. "Aftershock zone scaling", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 92, 641-655, 2002.

67. Kagan Y. Y. "Seismic moment distribution revisited: II. Moment conservation principle", Geophys. J. Int., 149, 731-754, 2002.

68. Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., and Jackson, D. D., 2002. "Plate tectonics and earthquake potential of spreading ridges and oceanic transform faults", in: Plate Boundary Zones, AGU Geodynamics Series Monograph Volume 30, eds. S. Stein and J. T. Freymueller, 203-218 (DOI: 10/1029/030GD12).

69. Kagan, Y. Y., 2002. "Modern California earthquake catalogs and their comparison", Seism. Res. Lett., 73(6), 921-929.

70. Kagan Y. Y., 2003. "Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs", Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 135(2-3), 173-209.

71. Rong, Y.-F., D. D. Jackson and Y. Y. Kagan, 2003. "Seismic gaps and earthquakes", J. Geophys. Res., 108(B10), 2471, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334.

72-73. "EARTHQUAKE SCIENCE AND SEISMIC RISK REDUCTION", 2003 NATO Arbus book components.

74. Kagan Y. Y. "Short-term properties of earthquake catalogs and models of earthquake source", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 94(4), 1207-1228, 2004.

75. Bird, P., and Y. Y. Kagan, 2004. "Plate-tectonic analysis of shallow seismicity: apparent boundary width, beta, corner magnitude, coupled lithosphere thickness, and coupling in seven tectonic settings", Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 94(6), 2380-2399.

76. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2005. "Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering", J. Geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S08, 10.1029/2004JB003286.

77. Kagan, Y.Y., 2005. "Earthquake slip distribution: A statistical model", J. Geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S11, 10.1029/2004JB003280.

78. Kagan, Yan Y., David D. Jackson, and Zhen Liu, 2005. "Stress and earthquakes in southern California, 1850-2004", J. Geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S14, 10.1029/2004JB003313.

79. Zaliapin, I. V., Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Schoenberg, 2005. "Approximating the distribution of Pareto sums", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 162(6-7), 1187-1228.

80. Kagan, Y. Y., and H. Houston, 2005. "Relation between mainshock rupture process and Omori's law for aftershock moment release rate", Geophys. J. Int., 163(3), 1039-1048.

81. Kagan, Y. Y., 2005. "Double-couple earthquake focal mechanism: Random rotation and display", Geophys. J. Int., 163(3), 1065-1072.

82. Kagan, Y. Y. and D. D. Jackson, 2006. Comment on `Testing earthquake prediction methods: "The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV >= 5.8"' by V. G. Kossobokov, Tectonophysics, 413(1-2), 33-38.

83. Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. F. Rong, 2006. A new catalog of southern California earthquakes, 1800-2005, Seismological Research Letters, 77(1), 30-38.

84. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2006. Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 96(1), 90-106.

85. Castellaro, S., F. Mulargia and Y. Y. Kagan, 2006. "Regression problems for magnitudes", Geophys. J. Int., 165(3), 913-930.

86. Jackson, D. D., and Y. Y. Kagan, 2006. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, the 1985 prediction, and characteristic earthquakes: lessons for the future, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 96(4b), S397-S409.

87. Kagan, Y. Y., 2006. "Why does theoretical physics fail to explain and predict earthquake occurrence?", in: Modelling Critical and Catastrophic Phenomena in Geoscience: A Statistical Physics Approach, Lecture Notes in Physics, 705, pp. 303-359, P. Bhattacharyya and B. K. Chakrabarti (Eds), Springer Verlag, Berlin--Heidelberg.

88. Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson, 2007. High-resolution time-independent grid-based forecast for M>=5 earthquakes in California, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 78-86.

89. Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. F. Rong, 2007. A testable five-year forecast of moderate and large earthquakes in southern California based on smoothed seismicity, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 94-98.

90. Shen, Zheng-Kang, David D. Jackson, and Yan Y. Kagan, 2007. Implications of geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes, with a five-year forecast of M5 earthquakes in southern California, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 116-120.

91. Kagan, Y. Y., 2007. "Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension", Geophys. J. Int., 168(3), 1175-1194.

92. Kagan, Y. Y., 2007. "On earthquake predictability measurement: information score and error diagram", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 164(10), 1947-1962.

93. Kagan, Y. Y., 2007. "Simplified algorithms for calculating double-couple rotation", Geophys. J. Int., 171(1), 411-418.

Papers, discussing statistical tensor analysis are ## 12, 14-15, 18-20, 24, 29, 32, 34, 37, 39, 56, 63, 70, 81, 93.

Seismic moment or magnitude distribution is discussed in ## 11, 27, 35, 42-43, 46, 49, 53, 60, 64-65, 67-68, 72, 75, 79, 85 papers.

Papers on earthquake prediction are ## 0, 3, 13, 17, 22, 30, 33, 36, 38, 41, 44-45, 48, 50-52, 54-55, 57-59, 62, 71, 73, 82, 84, 86, 88-90, 92.

Papers on stress and earthquakes are ## 16, 24, 37, 39, 56, 76, 78.

Papers, discussing errors and accuracy of earthquake data, are ## 6, 65, 66, 69, 70, 85.

Review papers are ## 23, 31, 40, 47, 54, 59, 87.

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Registration of tremors during aftershock sequence of the 1966 Tashkent (Uzbekistan) earthquake.