3. Kagan, Y., and Knopoff, L., 1977. Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 14(2), 97-108

Abstract

Abstract + References

PDF file, 948 Kb

-1. Kagan, Ya. Ya., A probabilistic description of the seismic regime, Izvestiya Academy of Sciences USSR, Physics of the Solid Earth, no.4, April 1973, pp.213-19, English translation.

0. Kagan, Y. Y., 1973. Statistical methods in the study of the seismic process (translated from Russian by D. Vere-Jones; with discussion: comments by M. S. Bartlett, A. G. Hawkes, and J. W. Tukey), Bull. Int. Statist. Inst., 45(3), 437-453; PDF file 14Mb

13. Kagan, Y. Y., and L. Knopoff, 1984. A stochastic model of earthquake occurrence, Proc. 8-th Int. Conf. Earthq. Eng., San Francisco, Calif., vol. 1, 295-302.

33. Molchan, G. M., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1992. Earthquake prediction and its optimization, J. Geophys. Res., 97(B4), 4823-4838.

92. Kagan, Y. Y., 2007. "On earthquake predictability measurement: information score and error diagram", Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 164(10), 1947-1962.

Vere-Jones, D. (1998), Probabilities and information gain for earthquake forecasting, Computational Seismology, 30, Geos, Moscow, 248-263, LaTeX file, 45 Kb

Vere-Jones, D. (1998), Probabilities and information gain for earthquake forecasting, Computational Seismology, 30, Geos, Moscow, 248-263, PDF file (from LaTeX file and scanned figures), 2.5 Mb

Daley, D. J., and D. Vere-Jones, 2004. Scoring probability forecasts for point processes: The entropy score and information gain, J. Applied Probability, 41A: 297-312, (Sp. Iss.), PDF file, 157 Kb

David Harte and David Vere-Jones, The Entropy Score and its Uses in Earthquake Forecasting, Pure Appl. Geophys., 162 (2005) 1229-1253, PDF file 0.4 Mb.