Kagan, Y. Y., 2007.
"On earthquake predictability measurement:
information score and error diagram",
Pure Appl. Geoph. (PAGEOPH), 164(10), 1947-1962.
PDF file, 0.6 Mb.
Correction, PS file
Postprint from UC eScholarship Repository.
PDF file, ms, submitted to PAGEOPH, 0.2 Mb.
PS file, ms, latest version 2007/06/06, 0.3 Mb.
Ms, LaTeX file, latest version 2007/06/06.
Four MATLAB programs to produce Fig. 5; run eqpred3a.m.
eqpred3a.m;
gamseis3.m;
pred7.m;
twop.m.
PDF file, updated, 0.1 Mb.
LaTeX file.
PDF file, 0.1 Mb.
PDF file, draft mode, 1-column format, 0.6 Mb.
PDF file, 2-column format, 0.2 Mb.
Fig. 1, PDF file.
Fig. 2, PDF file.
Fig. 3, PDF file.
Fig. 4, PDF file.
AGU LaTeX file.
Poster for SCEC 2006 September 10-12 meeting,
PPT file, 0.35 Mb, 2006/9/6.
Power-point presentation for SCEC CSEP workshop,
June 7-8, 2006, "GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS"; PPT file, 4.5 Mb,
2006/6/9.
3. Kagan, Y., and L. Knopoff, 1977.
Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process,
Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 14(2), 97-108.
33. Molchan, G. M., and Y. Y. Kagan, 1992.
Earthquake prediction and its optimization,
J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4823-4838.
95. Kagan, Y. Y., 2009.
"Testing long-term earthquake forecasts:
likelihood methods and error diagrams",
Geophys. J. Int., Geophys. J. Int., 177(2), 532-542.
doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04064.x
Vere-Jones, D. (1998),
Probabilities and information gain for earthquake forecasting,
Computational Seismology, 30, Geos, Moscow,
248-263, LaTeX file, 45 Kb
Vere-Jones, D. (1998),
Probabilities and information gain for earthquake forecasting,
Computational Seismology, 30, Geos, Moscow,
248-263, PDF file (from LaTeX file and scanned figures), 2.5 Mb
Daley, D. J., and D. Vere-Jones, 2004.
Scoring probability forecasts for point processes: The entropy score and
information gain, J. Applied Probability, 41A: 297-312, (Sp. Iss.), PDF file,
157 Kb
David Harte and David Vere-Jones,
The Entropy Score and its Uses in Earthquake Forecasting,
Pure Appl. Geophys., 162 (2005) 1229-1253, PDF file 0.4 Mb.